Why my money's on Aprilia and Suzuki in MotoGP 2022
What Joan Mir’s 2020 title year teaches us about the wide-open start to this MotoGP season
(This article also appears on my new MotoGP page, the MotoGP Zone.)
I’m not sure about you, but I’m getting those 2020 feelings again…
Don’t worry, I’m not about to ring in another COVID variant and announce a lockdown. I just mean that MotoGP looks ripe for another Joan Mir to win the title.
The big parallel to that abbreviated season is that nobody is getting away from the pack in terms of points. That’s because we’ve had nine different fellas on the podium in the first three rounds. From a maximum possible haul of 75, our leader Aleix Espargaró sits on a paltry 45 points. As in 2020, when Mir’s slow and steady won the bigger race, not even a guy sitting on zero points can be ruled out at this early stage.
In other words, we seem to be looking at the sort of low-scoring season where a rider might get away with winning just one or two races and still claim the championship. Where consistency from week to week might trump staccato bursts of outright pace.
The other similarity to 2020, of course, is that the potentially dominant Marc Márquez has been missing races and is trying to fight his way back from a health problem – in this case double vision. Though he’s announced he’ll be back in action in Austin this weekend and has 11 points in the bag, not even the man himself knows if he’s going to be a factor in this title chase or not.
(Will Marc have to accept a new approach? Must he find a new way to perform at a high level? We saw Tiger Woods do something similar at Augusta National yesterday, where he played ‘boring’ golf a younger Woods would never have recognized but got it round in 71. For my take on the parallels in their two careers, read here.)
So, if you’re into sports betting, or just like calling a winner early, MotoGP presents a fascinating challenge at the moment. Having backed Mir after five rounds in 2020 (at odds of 35-1) and come out feeling pretty smug about it, I’m searching for those riders and bikes showing a similar hint of consistency at this stage of the 2022 season.
We do need to bear in mind that there are more races scheduled this time around. Where 2020’s curtailed campaign was limited to 14 rounds, there will be a manic 21 of them this time around. There’s more time for a factory such as Ducati to sort out its troubles and hit a vein of form. They could probably even survive another weekend all at sea in Texas. Europe beckons after that – and curveballs like freight delays (Argentina), dodgy surfaces (Indonesia), floodlit racing (Qatar) and tropical storms (Indonesia) will be mostly out of the way.
For now, though, all we can do is glance down the points table in search of one who has shown some level of performance in all the wildly varied conditions we’ve encountered so far. Once again, the Suzukis catch the eye. In his usual quiet way, Mir has picked up a double-figure points haul in all three races so far. But Alex Rins is the one who’s trending. His finishes have steadily improved, from seventh to fifth to third. Of the two Suzuki Spaniards, he looks the more likely world champion.
Remember that Rins spent much of 2020 riding injured. Then, last year, he lost his confidence and crashed too much. But on the early evidence of 2022, he looks to be back in the dangerous groove that saw him beat Márquez in a hand-to-hand scrap at Silverstone the year before COVID.
Suzuki have also made technical progress – on top speed, for example – apparently without giving up that solid base that works everywhere. Even if you don’t fancy Rins for the title, he’s got to be a strong bet for Austin this weekend. Where better for his improving form to peak than the track where he fought off another legend in the shape of Valentino Rossi?
The slayings of Rossi and Márquez in 2019 showed the world what a downright fast rider Alex Rins can be. Though much has gotten in the way during the pandemic era, we’d do well not to forget that.
Meanwhile, everyone is talking up Aleix Espargaró’s chances following his breakthrough win in Argentina last weekend – and rightly so. The manner of his victory suggested there’s more where this came from.
The Aprilia was fast out of the box, which was particularly noticeable on a weekend when the boxes arrived at the last second and there wasn’t much track time to find your way. (Watching him in FP1 was enough to convince me to back him at 25-1.) It was also a dry race on a fairly ‘normal’ track – and the pace came on the back of some promising moments over the opening two rounds as well. Aprilia thus appears to have a good base, which is what you need for a championship challenge. On top of that, they’re the only factory with ‘concessions’, allowing them to make technical updates during the season while other machines are partially frozen. If they have any sense back at the Noale base, they will see this year as an opportunity that may never come round again, and throw all their resources at this campaign.
Espargaró’s experience is another thing that makes his case compelling. His 32 years of age and 18 years of World Championship action were among the reasons why one suspected he would be smart enough not to throw away his big chance in Argentina. And nor did he! Now, if he had maturity like that on tap with Jorge Martín breathing down his neck, he shouldn’t have much trouble putting together the kind of intelligent season Mir did in 2020. In other words not crashing, and making the most of the Sundays when you can’t win.
But if there’s a strong argument for Aleix, then what about his team-mate? Probably for the first time since his Qatar win at the start of 2021, Maverick Viñales is feeling upbeat. His seventh place in Argentina doesn’t sound like much, but he only finished six seconds behind Espargaró, who has spent years developing that very bike. It’s become tempting to write Viñales off given the way his career has shuddered in the last couple of seasons – but this is still a nine-time MotoGP winner and former Moto 3 champion we’re talking about. If he’s in a happy place and the bike plays along, he may be able to summon up his best again.
And if he does so in Austin, you can rest assured you won’t find him at 80-1 for the world championship any longer. That was a bet I simply couldn’t resist grabbing this week.
The rest? I could write a few thousand words on Ducati’s eight bikes, Miller’s misery and how long it will be before Francesco Bagnaia makes friends with his mount again. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the latter happens this weekend, actually. But we need a little more time to figure out what’s going on in Ducati-land, and see if any pattern emerges.
Yamaha does not appear to have the top speed to compete on enough tracks to sustain a strong championship campaign, while Honda’s fortunes are still hopelessly entangled with those of Márquez. And while I’m looking forward to the next random win from Oliveira or Brand Binder, KTM has yet to show the consistency for a title challenge.
I’m not planning to cheapen the Posh Sports Precinct by talking betting all that often, but these are exceptionally fun times to have a flutter on MotoGP – especially if you take the time to watch practice sessions and look at what riders are saying. Who is your money on?
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