South Africa and its Cricket World Cup coin-flip

Why chasing might give World Cup Proteas the jitters

So here we are again: South Africa’s cricketers are delivering hope where once there was none.

It wasn’t so long ago that the Proteas’ Cricket World Cup chances were being written off. September 9^th, to be precise. That was the day they succumbed to Australia by 123 runs to go 2-0 down in a home series.

We all know what happened after that. South Africa turned the five-match affair around and snuck a 3-2 win. Then it was off to India for the World Cup. A tournament that’s been going remarkably well for the Proteas.

They’ve won four out of five at the time of writing, and only the rampant blues of the host nation sit ahead of them on the table. Which seems about right if you consider the form we’ve seen from all the contenders. South Africa’s only slip-up was the awful outing against the Netherlands.

Yet I still get the feeling that if they’re finally going to deliver some ICC silverware, they’d better pray the coin falls the right way when the captains toss up on whatever big November day it might happen to be.

Because I can’t help noticing that the loss against the Dutch also happened to be the only match in which South Africa had to chase.

And while you could argue there’s not much to read into that – the Dutch bowling that day hasn’t actually been given the credit it deserves, after all – it happens to match up rather ominously with South Africa’s heavy World Cup history.

So many of those famous defeats came in chases. 22 of 1 at the Sydney Cricket Ground in 1992 wasn’t South Africa’s fault, but they were batting second nonetheless.

They came up short trying to reach 265 against the West Indies in Karachi in 1996.

Edgbaston 1999 needs no introduction. If you know anything at all about cricket, you know that trauma was a horror run-chase.

2003: ouch! It still stings for the nation that did hosting duties. And the game that sealed its fate, against Sri Lanka in Durban, was of course a famously mismanaged Duckworth-Lewis chase.

2011? The last time the tournament was played on the subcontinent? South Africa crashed out in pursuit of New Zealand’s 221/8.

Only in 2007 and 2015 semis, against Australia and New Zealand respectively, did South Africa crash out batting first. (Last time out in England, of course, there wasn’t any particular moment of heartbreak – the Proteas simply didn’t win enough games.)

When we think of the most famous Proteas World Cup tragedies, it’s the chases – Sydney, Edgbaston, Durban – that spring to front of mind. When it comes to spectacular exits, the chases lead 5-2.

And maybe that’s the reason I can’t help seeing a menacing asterisk on the results they’ve put up so far in India. Perhaps it’s co-incidence that their one bad day at the office came when batting second. Or maybe not.

Can South Africa’s in-form, technically strong batting vintage of 2023 handle the mental aspect of scoreboard pressure in a crunch game? Maybe they can, maybe they can’t. But if I were wearing a green shirt and I’d won the toss, I’d definitely stay on the safe side of that question.